“Let them eat cake!” infamously said Marie Antoinette during the bread shortages in the last years before the French Revolution. In today’s economy, the phrase wouldn’t make much sense, especially with the prices of one of the most common cake ingredients increasing sharply. Chocolate prices have seen many oscillations throughout history – some ancient Mesoamerican civilizations held cacao beans in such high regard that it was commonly used as currency for daily trade. However, multiple determinable causes can explain why the price of chocolate won’t stop increasing and what we can expect in the future.
Climate change
Climate change is not just about melting ice sheets – its effects extend to disrupting the growth of many plants, and cocoa beans are no exception. Quite the opposite, this plant is one of the most sensitive species regarding temperature change, and that is not the end of it. Climate change brings many secondary effects that can further negatively influence the development of healthy cocoa beans. First of all, increasing humidity in West Africa (which is responsible for a vast majority of the cocoa production) makes the crops more susceptible to insects that carry different parasites and viruses that can potentially kill the tree.
Secondly, rising temperatures and humidity increase the possibility of fungal infections. According to Metarom, black pod disease is one of the most serious diseases connected to the aforementioned infections. This condition makes the cocoa plant’s pods black and wet, leaving them to rot. Additionally, climate change contributes to sudden and unexpected weather changes, which affect both the quantity and the quality of the beans produced, since the plant is not very adaptable.
Tariffs
Regarding the West African cocoa production, two countries that contribute the most to the global supply are Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The United States has recently imposed increased tariffs on those countries, which now amount to 21% for the former and 10% for the latter. The tariffs and similar trade barriers have been imposed on other cocoa exporters like Latin American countries, which makes finding a cheaper alternative on the global market almost impossible. The cost of the tariffs is usually transferred to the final consumer, so the price of your favorite chocolate in the supermarket seems to get bigger and bigger.
The State of the African Farms
It is not a secret that the local farms on the Mother Continent are in a bad condition, which results in a suboptimal output of agricultural materials. The technology is outdated, and the farmers struggle to respond appropriately to the ever-changing climate conditions described above. Most cocoa beans come from small family-owned farms, whose workers usually don’t have access to the best agricultural practices and equipment. Due to a lack of mechanisation in the production process, cocoa farming remains a labor-heavy process, which also impacts the price of the cocoa, and consequently the chocolate.
In addition, a lack of adequate resources requires most farms to rely on old trees, which decreases the plant’s ability to produce the maximum amount of beans. And just like with any other living species, trees become weaker and more prone to different diseases as they age.
Increased Demand
The world is just hungry for more chocolate! The laws of supply and demand apply to all commodities, and most analysts tend to forget about the causes on the demand side. An increase in the average disposable income in the emerging economies of developing countries leads to a change in consumer preferences. This means that individuals from those countries are more inclined to spend some of their income on affordable luxuries such as chocolate.
However, it would be wrong to assume that developed countries don’t contribute to the demand increase. Consumers in Western countries have also been increasing their appetite for chocolate, especially premium and handmade chocolates. A prominent example is the pricey Dubai chocolate, whose price averages well above the regular bars.
It’s Not All About Cocoa…
Chocolate contains many other ingredients, such as sugar and milk, which have both seen significant price surges recently. Sugar prices are volatile for pretty much the same reasons as cocoa (for instance, climate change and trade wars), while milk also faces constant price fluctuations due to a variety of logistical and agricultural factors.
Good news? Recent scientific breakthroughs have already allowed companies to start producing cocoa-free chocolates. Apart from being cheaper, the production process is more environmentally friendly, making it a greener alternative to regular chocolate. As a relatively new product, cocoa-free bars are still not in full swing, as the scientists are working hard to create a flavor profile as close as possible to the original chocolate taste that we all love.
What can we expect?
The future of chocolate prices is uncertain, but there is still hope. The higher prices may incentivize farms in countries other than those where cocoa beans have been traditionally produced for centuries to enter the market. This would make the market more competitive and stabilize the prices. This is not merely a fantasy—a similar trend has occurred with other agricultural products, such as numerous fruits and vegetables.
If all this talk about chocolate makes you ravenous, you should check out some delicious dessert ideas and try your luck in the kitchen! And for those on a budget, don’t worry! Amazing berry desserts are featured, and everyone with a sweet tooth knows that the best way to bypass the rising chocolate prices is to resort to some good old cherry pie!
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